Super Bowl XLIV Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

 

So who's it going to be in Super Bowl XLIV? The Peyton Manning-led Indianapolis Colts or the Drew Brees-led New Orleans Saints? The favorite Colts, or the underdog Saints? Will Manning cement his legacy by winning his second Super Bowl, or will the Saints rise to the occasion and give the citizens of the state of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans something to remember for a lifetime? What team is facing more pressure?

Reasons why the Colts will win: 

Peyton Manning. 

In my opinion, Manning is the best and most valuable football player in the league. Every season. Take Manning away from the Colts, and they would most likely be mired in mediocrity. Manning is without a doubt the team's leader, especially on offense. All week, analysts and reporters have tried to figure out how (and if) Manning can be rattled. It's basically impossible, as even opposing players have testified. True, Manning does not have the best track record in the postseason, but I can't see how Manning doesn't show up tomorrow in Miami. He won his 4th MVP this season, seemed to be slightly perturbed at missing out on a chance to go undefeated through the regular season, and you can bet he'll want to finish what he started. And in the AFC Championship Game against what many felt was the league's best defense in the New York Jets, he finished the game with this line: 26-39, 377 YDS, 3 TD, 0 INT, and a 30-17 win.

Dallas Clark.

Dallas Clark had 100 catches for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. From the tight end position. And yet, we heard more about Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, and Jason Witten all season. It helped that Marvin Harrison was gone, Anthony Gonzalez was hurt, and the Colts offense had to incorporate inexperienced receivers like Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie into the mix (coupled with a horrible running game), but Clark is more than capable of putting up the same numbers even as part of an offense that has all of its pieces. Dallas Clark is one of the most underappreciated players in the league, and at 6'3", 250 lbs, is a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses. He's too fast for most linebackers, and he uses his size to get between the football and defensive backs. Clark has been relatively quiet this postseason, but that is due to the emergence of Garcon and Collie. I predict that he'll make noise tomorrow.

Colts defense.

It's hard for a defense to make a name for itself when seemingly everyone feels that the Colts are a team predicated on offense. But the Colts had an above average defense this year, finishing 18th in total defense while allowing 19 points a game, good for 8th in the NFL. Their defense has been even better in the postseason, allowing 20 points through 2 games, and shut out the Jets offense in the 2nd half of the AFC Championship Game. Granted, the Colts drew two not-so-hot offenses in the Baltimore Ravens and the Jets, but those two teams are very good at running the ball. Against the Colts, they averaged 87 yards on the ground, and as good as the Saints passing game is, I believe their running game is equally important. Despite the possibility that right end Dwight Freeney might not play, the Colts numbers without him are virtually the same, and Raheem Brock is no slouch.

Reasons why the Saints will win:

The city of New Orleans.

Unless you've been under a rock for the last 5 years, there is no way that you're not aware of the natural disaster that was Hurricane Katrina in 2005. A city that struggled a great deal before the hurricane was basically demolished afterwards. The Superdome became a refuge of sorts, and all most of the citizens had left besides their sanity were their beloved Saints. This is a city that is still recovering, even almost 5 years later, and if you've ever watched a game on TV, the crowd puts the Seattle Seahawks "12th Man" to shame. These fans are not only cheering for a football team, they're rooting for a restoration of order in their city. Mardi Gras is one of the grandest celebrations on Earth, and I read that it paled in comparison to how the people of New Orleans celebrated after the Saints clinched a spot in Super Bowl XLIV. I guarantee that anyone watching the Super Bowl will know there are Saints fans at the game.

Saints wide receivers and running backs.

Most point to Drew Brees as the guy that makes the Saints offense go, but I disagree. I'm not saying that Brees hasn't been instrumental in their turnaround, but this is a Saints team that has the most offensive weapons in all of football. Reggie Bush, touted by some as the next Gale Sayers after coming out of USC, isn't even the player that stands out the most. He was barely a blip on the radar at times, despite all of the attention that is paid to him. Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell make a fairly formidable two-headed monster at running back, and Bush is nothing more than a change of pace back, albeit a good one. Although Marques Holston is probably the Saints best receiver, he's not THE guy. Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, and tight end Jeremy Shockey are all players that must be accounted for on every play, as each player has the capability to stretch the field and make big plays. It's pick your poison with this Saints offense. SIXTEEN different Saints scored an offensive touchdown this season, and that's not including how dangerous Reggie Bush is in the return game.

Saints defense.

Again, most pretty much ignore what the Saints defense has done this year, because most have focused on the Saints offensive prowess. The Saints defense has been far from stellar (actually one of the worst defenses in the league), but is opportunistic, and is led by ballhawk free safety Darren Sharper. Sharper picked off 9 passes this year, returning 3 for scores, and Vilma, while undersized, is a very good inside linebacker. Roman Harper is the Saints strong safety, and has been good in run support, notching 102 tackles, 84 solos, and 10 for loss. After a down 2008, defensive end Will Smith had a career-high 13 sacks this season, and Charles Grant is more than a serviceable defensive end on the opposite side. The Saints scored 5 defensive touchdowns this season and look to advance the ball downfield after creating turnovers, making it even easier for the powerful Saints offense to put points on the board.

My prediction:
The Saints have a more powerful offense and more weapons on that side of the ball than the Colts. However, the Saints have given up almost 420 yards and 21 points a game this postseason. Yes, they've played the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, two teams with great offenses of their own, but there's no way they can afford to allow the Colts to rack up those numbers. NO WAY. I assume Manning can put 21 points on the board against any defense in the league, so spotting him that many can only spell doom for the opposition. Against a Saints defense that might be a little too eager to make a play (knowing they can't shut down Manning and the Colts O), I feel the Colts will be able to move the ball up and down the field without a problem. In addition, the Colts have the trump card: Peyton Manning. Colts win, 31-17.

Cubs, Carlos Marmol avoid arbitration...

The Cubs signed closer Carlos Marmol to a one-year, $2.125 million contract, avoiding arbitration. Marmol made $575,000 in 2009 and was asking for $2.5 million while the Cubs offered him $1.75 million.

Marmol became the closer in mid-August, after newly acquired Kevin Gregg failed to convert numerous save opportunities. He finished 11-for-11 in save opportunities, but struggled with his control all year, walking close to a man an inning, 65 in 74 innings. Still, he was virtually unhittable, as hitters hit only .170 against him.

The Cubs are headed to arbitration with...RYAN THERIOT?!?!?!

Yes, you read right. The Chicago Cubs are going to arbitration with light-hitting, weak-armed, above-average speed having, shortstop Ryan Theriot. This is the first time since 1993 that a Cub has gone to arbitration. That player in 1993? First baseman, Mark Grace, and he lost his case. He asked for $4.1 million and was awarded the Cubs offer of $3.1 million. Theriot's agents have asked for $3.4 million, while the Cubs have offered $2.6 million. Either way, Theriot will get a hefty raise from the $500,000 he made in 2009.

Like many Cubs fans, I was outraged to learn that Theriot didn't accept the Cubs inital offer, and that he would actually take them to arbitration. Before you burn your Theriot t-shirts and jerseys, I'd like to first defend his case:

The 2009 season was definitely a disappointing one for the Cubs, and Theriot was one of the bright spots (albeit not very bright). He finished with a .284 BA, .343 OBP, .369 SLG%, 7 HR and 54 RBI (both career highs) and 22 SB. He actually improved in the field, playing in 5 more games in 2009 than 2008 and making only one more error. His UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, I'll explain this and the following sabermetrics later) was 7.7 (up from .4 in 2008), his RF/G (Range Factor Per Game) was 4.1 (up from 3.7 in 2008), and his RngR (Range Runs Above Average) jumped to a 5.7 in 2009 (up from -.1 in 2008). On a team that saw various guys miss chunks of time due to injuries, Theriot stayed healthy and played in 154 games. He performed at this level while making "only" $500,000, less than the following shortstops: Luis Rodriguez (San Diego Padres), Augie Ojeda (Arizona Diamondbacks), Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers), Omar Vizquel (Texas Rangers), and much less than Alex Gonzalez (Cincinnati Reds/Boston Red Sox).

Now I will argue against his case:

His .284 BA was 23 points lower than his 2008 BA of .307, and while his SLG% was 10% higher than his 2008 number, his OBP was a shocking 44% than what he posted in 2008. For a guy that doesn't provide much power and hits at the top of the order, an OBP of .343 is just unacceptable. Yes, he stole 22 bases, but his success rate was barely above 66%. He hit 7 homers in 2009, but he hit 5 of those in May and didn't hit another after June 29 (a game against the Pirates, no less). He only had 38 RBI in 2008, but he was more of a directional hitter whose FB% (fly ball on balls in play percentage) was 20%, and he had a GB% (ground ball on balls in play percentage) of 57%. In 2008, he had a GB/FB (ground ball to fly ball ratio) of 2.80. He hit more fly balls (30%) and less ground balls (50%) in 2009, which again, isn't good for a guy that doesn't have much power. He also walked 51 times (compared to 73 in 2008) and struck out an alarming 93 times (to only 58 in 2008), which also isn't good for a contact hitter placed at the top of the order.

Once again, the 2009 Cubs season was a disappointment, and Theriot was one of the few players that didn't completely drive Cubs fans up the wall with his poor play. But seeing as how prospect Starlin Castro is simply waiting for his chance to man the shortstop position, Theriot should be more focused on getting back to what made him a successful shortstop in the majors instead of trying to get every possible dollar that he can. I doubt he wins the hearing, and assume that he'll somehow find a way to be satisfied with making $2.6 million, even as a shortstop that can't throw out AJ Pierzynski from the 5-6 hole. February 8-20 should be a very interesting time for not only Theriot and the Cubs front office, but the fans as well...

Are the Blackhawks the best team in the NHL?

As of today, February 3, 2010, the Chicago Blackhawks record is a stellar 37-14-4. If the playoffs were to start today, the Blackhawks would be the #2 seed and would face the #7 seed Nashville Predators. Obviously, it has been some time since the Blackhawks have performed at this level, and luckily, it doesn't seem as if the Blackhawks are showing any signs of slowing down. Many Blackhawks fans feel that they are the best team in the NHL, despite being behind the San Jose Sharks in the Western Conference standings (a perennial Presidents Trophy contender, but also a perennial early-round loser) and the Washington Capitals, (owners of an 11-game winning streak and the best record in the East, with the best player in the league, Alexander Ovechkin) who seem to be a legit Stanley Cup contender this year. The Blackhawks are a young, fast team, that is 4 lines deep with very good defensemen and 2 solid goaltenders. Some of their NHL rankings:

• 2nd in wins (37)
• 3rd in points (78)
• 4th in goals per game (3.18)
• 2nd in goals allowed per game (2.27)
• 6th in power play percentage (20.7%)
• 5th in penalty kill percentage (85.5%)
• 1st in shots per game (33.7)
• 1st in shots allowed per game (24.2)

Some of the Blackhawks individual NHL rankings:

• Patrick Kane is 9th in scoring (60 points)
• Duncan Keith is 2nd in scoring amongst defensemen (49 points)
• Keith is 2nd in time on ice per game (26:33)
• Brian Campbell is 8th in scoring amonst defensemen (34 points)
• Jonathan Toews is 8th in faceoff percentage (57.4%)
• Antti Niemi is 1st in GAA (1.99) and tied for 4th in shutouts (4, despite only making 18 appearances)
• Cristobal Huet is also tied for 4th in shutouts (4)

The Blackhawks are the only team with 2 defensemen in the top ten in scoring for their position. Despite some erratic play, Huet could still be in line to win the William Jennings Trophy (given to the goaltenders that play for the team that allows the fewest goals during the regular season) along with Niemi. Keith could possibly win the Norris Trophy (given to the best defenseman in the NHL), and on top of a possible Presidents Trophy for the Blackhawks (an award given to the team with the best regular-season record), coach Joel Quenneville could win the Jack Adams Award (given to the NHL's best coach). Taking care of business against common foes, the Blackhawks have the 2nd best record in the NHL against their own division, behind the Capitals, and the 4th best record against their own conference, behind the Sharks, New Jersey Devils, and Capitals. In addition, the Blackhawks also have the NHL's 2nd best home record (21-5-1), just behind the Washington Capitals, and the 4th best road record (16-9-3), again, behind the Sharks, Devils, and Capitals.

This is not a team that leans on one or two players, either. At least 11 Blackhawks have 21 points, and 9 have at least 11 goals. Newcomer Marian Hossa is 7th on the team with 30 points (15 G, 15 A) despite playing in only 32 out of a possible 55 games because of a shoulder injury. Only 3 players have a minus rating, and as I said earlier, the Blackhawks get production from lines 1-4.

What are the Blackhawks' weaknesses? Turnovers in the defensive zone, erratic goaltending from their #1 (Huet), and at times, making one pass too many and not properly taking advantage in power-play situations. Other than that, the Blackhawks are a very good all-around team, that usually gets beat (rarely) rather than beating themselves.

Is this the best team in the NHL? Some would say it's the Capitals (Ovi, Varlamov, Backstrom, Green), the Sharks (Thornton, Marleau, Nabokov), the Devils (Brodeur, Parise, Langenbrunner), or, according to my friend Jon, the Penguins (Crosby and the Crosbyettes). Honestly, it doesn't matter to me who is the best team in the NHL as of this very moment, or who would hold what seed if the playoffs ended today. All I care about is the Blackhawks hoisting Lord Stanley's Cup at the end of June...

Bears hire Mike Martz to be their new offensive coordinator...

Finally, the Bears have their offensive coordinator. Mike Martz has been hired today as the Chicago Bears new offensive coordinator. I feel that Martz should have been the first and only guy interviewed for the job all along. Now Bears fans will have to wait and see whether head coach Lovie Smith abandons his "We get off the bus running" philosophy in favor of an offense that throws the ball downfield more. With Jay Cutler at QB, Greg Olsen, Desmond Clark, and Kellen Davis at TE, and  Devin Aromashodu, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Earl Bennett as the top 4 WRs, I'd like to see the Bears throw the ball around more than they have in the past. Obviously, Martz's hire doesn't solve the O-line's woes, Matt Forte's newfound ineffectiveness, Cutler's erratic play, or the raw talent of the WRs, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Martz will add at least 1-2 wins from the 7 the Bears notched last year. A healthy Urlacher, Briggs, Tillman, and Tommie Harris on the defensive side should also give this team a boost in 2010.

Cubs sign Kevin Millar to minor-league deal...

The Cubs have reached a minor league agreement with first baseman Kevin Millar, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.  The deal will be announced later this week. The Cubs signed Chad Tracy last week, so Millar would compete with him for a backup job. Millar, 38, hit .223/.311/.363 in 283 plate appearances for the Blue Jays last year. Millar and starting pitcher Ryan Dempster are good buddies, so if nothing else, Cubs fans should be in store for a few laughs

Could it be...Mike Martz?

Mike Martz arrived at Halas Hall on Friday to interview for the vacant offensive coordinator position with the ChicagoBears. Martz worked with head coach Lovie Smith in St. Louis, and he is considered the mastermind of "The Greatest Show On Turf". He helped the Rams win the Super Bowl in 1999, and he led an offense that scored 500 points a NFL-record 3 seasons in a row. Martz eventually became the Rams head coach, hiring Lovie Smith to be his defensive coordinator. The Rams made another appearance in the Super Bowl in 2001, losing to the New England Patriots. Martz has a reputation as a know-it-all, and many believe that he ignored Marshall Faulk's ability to run the ball during his tenure, as his tendency is to throw the ball around. After leaving St. Louis, he was the offensive coordinator for the Detroit Lions in 2006 and 2007, and held the same position for the San Francisco 49ers in 2008. Martz is the fourth candidate to be interview for the job, and easily the most accomplished and has the highest profile. It has been reported that QB Jay Cutler has been involved in the process of hiring a new offensive coordinator, and I assume that we will learn shortly of the Bears decision.